I Made ¥72,000 on Gold ETF in 152 Days. Here's What I Did Right and Wrong.
A full breakdown of my Gold ETF (518880) trade — the entries, exits, mistakes, and rules for next time.
Yesterday I closed my entire position in Gold ETF (518880). 152 days, ¥72,426 profit, 100% win rate on every single sell.
Sounds clean. It was not.
This is a full breakdown of the trade — the entries, the exits, the mistakes, and what I would do differently.
The Setup
October 22, 2025. Gold ETF dropped hard. Price sat near the Bollinger Band daily mid-rail — my entry signal.
I built the position over three days:
- Oct 22: 13,900 shares @ ¥8.986
- Oct 27: 16,300 shares @ ¥8.956
- Oct 28: 16,800 shares @ ¥8.766
Total: 47,000 shares. About ¥418,000 in.
Average cost: roughly ¥8.90.
The logic was sound but the timing was early. Price kept dipping after I bought. It took about a month to stabilize. I could have waited one more day for confirmation and gotten a better entry.
Lesson: entering on a big red candle feels decisive. Waiting for a close above support is more reliable.
The Middle: Slow Profit-Taking
From November through late January, gold climbed from ¥8.7 to above ¥11. A 30%+ move.
I trimmed along the way — 300 shares here, 1,000 there. Small sells. Cautious.
Over two months I only reduced about 11,300 shares. The position was still heavy at the top.
This is the part I need to fix. When the price hits Weekly Bollinger upper band, I should be taking off more off the table.
The Best Move: January 30 Reloading
Then came the drop. On January 30, gold fell hard. Same day, I added three times:
- 10,000 shares @ ¥10.03 (near the daily low)
- 5,000 shares @ ¥11.232
- 5,000 shares @ ¥11.200
The ¥10.03 buy was nearly perfect timing. On February 3, I added another 9,000 shares at ¥10.185.
This was the trade within the trade. These reloads at the dip are what turned a decent return into ¥72,000.
The Exit: Controlled but Late
From late February through March, I started selling in size:
- Feb 26: 19,000 shares @ ¥10.954 — the big reduction
- Mar 3: 10,000 shares @ ¥11.378 — second major sell
These two days accounted for the bulk of profit-taking. Good prices, good timing.
After that, I continued trimming as gold declined through March. Smaller batches at ¥10.6–¥10.9.
March 20: sold 10,000 shares at ¥9.9. Price had already dropped 15% from the high.
March 23: final 10,000 shares at ¥9.459. Price broke below the weekly Bollinger mid-rail — my exit signal. I executed and closed.
The Numbers
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Holding period | 152 days |
| Total profit | +¥72,426 |
| Estimated return | ~10% |
| Total trades | 33 (7 buys, 26 sells) |
| Win rate | 100% (every sell above average cost) |
What I Did Right
1. Entry signal was correct. Daily Bollinger mid-rail during a sharp drop. The logic worked even though the timing was slightly early.
2. Split entry across three days. Reduced single-point risk. Average cost ended up reasonable.
3. January reload was the key move. Buying the dip at ¥10.03 while everyone was panicking.
4. Executed the exit signal. When price broke the weekly mid-rail, I cleared out. No hoping, no holding for a bounce.
What I Did Wrong
1. Entered too early. Bought on the red candle instead of waiting for next-day confirmation. Could have saved 2-4% on entry.
2. Took profits too slowly. Gold ran 30% and I trimmed in tiny amounts. When the signal says reduce, reduce in size.
3. Held too long in March. The final 15,000 shares sold at ¥9.4–¥9.9, well below the ¥10.9–¥11.3 range where I should have cleared more aggressively.
Rules for Next Time
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Entry: wait for daily close confirmation, not intraday drops. One extra day of patience beats catching a falling knife.
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Profit-taking: set price-level targets. Upper band = sell 30%. Another 5% up = sell another 30%.
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Reloading: one entry at one price level after stabilization. Not three panic buys across a 12% range on the same day.
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Exit: when the weekly mid-rail breaks, pre-set the limit order the night before. Do not wait for market open to decide.
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ETF timing gap: decisions made at night, prices changed by morning. Solution: always use limit orders, placed in advance.
The Takeaway
This trade was profitable. The logic was right. The execution had clear gaps.
¥72,000 in 152 days is a result I can accept.
The lesson is not about gold. It is about the difference between having a signal and following through on it with conviction.
Next time: bigger exits at resistance, faster cuts at support breaks, and limit orders before I go to sleep.
For the record, it’s my gold trading position not asset allocation.
I still have 5% of my portfolio in Gold that endures every pump and dump.
As Investors are looking at different timeframes, it’s all about how you deal with the rules and how to survive in this wild market.
Trade data: Guotai Junan brokerage records, Oct 2025 – Mar 2026. All figures in CNY.