Build in Public · Portfolio 公开建造 · 持仓驾驶舱
Portfolio · Conviction on Display 持仓 · 公开的决策
No amounts. Just sectors, theses, stages, and the scorecard behind every position. 不公开金额。只展示板块、逻辑、阶段，以及每个仓位背后的评分卡。
Current Regime 当前宏观 Defensive 防御期
🕐 Last updated: 2026-07-20 🕐 最后更新: 2026-07-20
Macro Thermometer 宏观温度计
The market temperature we're trading against 我们在和什么样的市场做交易
Defensive · 0/4 green防御期 · 0/4 绿灯 10Y UST 4.6%
DXY 101
VIX 18.65
NAAIM 95.64
Policy Stalemate 胶着
VIX & Regime · 60 days VIX 与 Regime · 60 天
Shaded bands mark regime transitions (green = offensive, amber = neutral, red = defensive). VIX line is the mood overlay. 色段为 regime 状态（绿=进攻、黄=中性、红=防御）。VIX 折线是情绪指标。
Allocation · Target vs Current 资产配置 · 目标 vs 当前
Five buckets, conviction on display 五桶资产，信念展示
Dalio three-bucket framework. Percentages are strategic targets; drift chips show current distance from each target. 达利欧三桶法框架。百分比是战略目标，偏差 chip 显示当前距目标的距离。
Stablecoin Yield 33.5% · Funds 32.4% · Gold 4% · Stocks 23.1% · Crypto 7%稳定币生息 33.5% · 基金与现金 32.4% · 黄金 4% · 股票 23.1% · 加密敞口 7% Stablecoin Yield 稳定币生息 33.5% + 4.1pp
Funds 基金与现金 32.4% + 3.1pp
Gold 黄金 4% -0.4pp
Stocks 股票 23.1% -6.1pp
Crypto 加密敞口 7% -0.7pp
Allocation Drift 配置偏移趋势
- - target- - 目标Capital Mobility Risk 资本流动风险
6/10 Elevated · Tightening 升温 · 收紧
Policy Pressure 政策压力 2/2
Channel Friction 通道摩擦 1/2
Legal Quota Pressure 合法额度压力 1/2
Enforcement Intensity 执法强度 1/2
Reversibility Risk 可逆性风险 1/2
Cross-border investment access is tightening; treat offshore liquidity as a strategic constraint, not just a yield choice. 跨境投资通道正在收紧；境外流动性应被视为战略约束，而不只是收益选择。
Risk Profile 风险画像
14/100 Defensive 防御型
Weighted Return 加权收益 5.7% → 5.4%
Portfolio Volatility 组合波动率 9.7% → 8.1%
Sharpe Ratio 夏普比率 0.22 → 0.22
Sharpe = (return − risk_free) / vol. Higher = better risk-adjusted return. 夏普比率 = (收益率 − 无风险利率) / 波动率。越高代表风险调整后收益越好。
Portfolio Health 组合健康度
3.7 /5.0
Healthy 健康 Composite score across quant factors — valuation, momentum, growth & risk. Higher = stronger fundamental & technical positioning. 量化综合评分，涵盖估值、动量、成长性与风险四因子。越高代表基本面和技术面定位越强。
Health Trend 健康度趋势
Portfolio Beta 组合Beta
1.40 / 1.38
Portfolio / Equity-only β 全组合 / 仅股票 β Sensitivity to market moves. β=1 tracks the market; >1 amplifies swings; <1 dampens them. Portfolio β blends all assets; equity β isolates stock exposure. 对市场波动的敏感度。β=1 跟随大盘，>1 放大波动，<1 缓冲波动。组合 β 包含所有资产，股票 β 仅衡量股票敞口。
Beta Trend Beta趋势
Stablecoin Yield 稳定币生息
Target 目标 33.5%
Current 当前 37.6%
Exp. Return 预期年化 5%
Volatility 波动率 1%
Base layer — yield-producing, low beta, recession-resistant 底座层——带息、低 beta、抗衰退
Funds 基金与现金
Target 目标 32.4%
Current 当前 35.5%
Exp. Return 预期年化 3.2%
Volatility 波动率 3%
Cash buffer + conservative wealth management + earmarked funds (housing, education, receivable) 现金缓冲 + 保守理财 + 专项资金（买房/教育/应收）
Gold 黄金
Target 目标 4%
Current 当前 3.6%
Exp. Return 预期年化 3.5%
Volatility 波动率 24.5%
Long-cycle liquidity hedge — not a candle chart. M2 inversion system entry. 长周期流动性对冲——不看五分钟K线。M2 倒挂体系入场。
Stocks 股票
Target 目标 23.1%
Current 当前 17%
Exp. Return 预期年化 8.6%
Volatility 波动率 22.1%
Long + swing mix — AI-electricity core with opportunistic overlays 长期 + 波段组合——AI 电力核心 + 机会主义叠加
A-share A 股 8.8%
Crypto 加密敞口
Target 目标 7%
Current 当前 6.3%
Exp. Return 预期年化 12.6%
Volatility 波动率 32.5%
Asymmetric bet — long-duration, non-correlated, high-volatility core 不对称下注——长久期、低相关、高波动核心
Crypto Dashboard 加密看板
Crypto Market Intelligence 加密市场全景
Crypto radar, market temperature, and on-chain metrics. 加密雷达、市场温度与链上指标。
Composite 36.7/100 · FGI — 综合 36.7/100 · FGI —Market Pulse 市场脉搏
36.7 /100 Fear恐惧
↑ 0.4 vs yesterday较昨日
Crypto Tracker Indicators 加密追踪指标
Indicator指标 Status状态 Detail详情 Chg变化
Fear & Greed Index市场极度恐慌 Current:29当前:29 ↑1
Miner Capitulation矿工投降 Drawdown: -20.7%回撤: -20.7% →0
Black Swan Intensity黑天鹅强度 BSS:48.3BSS:48.3 ↓0.4
Macro VIX宏观股市熊市 VIX:18.6VIX:18.6 ↓0.2
OTC Reserve (SSR)场外资金储备 SSR:11.4%, Abundant OTCSSR:11.4%, 场外充裕 →0
MVRV Z-ScoreMVRV Z-Score Z:-1.17, Severely UndervaluedZ:-1.17, 严重低估 ↑0.02
BTC ETF FlowBTC ETF资金流 +1M, Neutral Flow+1M, 资金中性 ↓36
Dollar Index (DXY)美元指数DXY DXY:101.0DXY:101.0, 美元中性 ↑0.2
BTC Price & Sentiment Trend BTC 价格与情绪趋势
Portfolio Value Index 持仓价值指数
Indexed (base=100)基准=100 Max DD最大回撤 -6.19%
Current DD当前回撤 -0.49%
BTC BetaBTC Beta 0.06
Ann. Vol年化波动 9.97%
Gold Tracker · Long-cycle dashboard黄金跟踪 · 长周期仪表盘
Gold is a liquidity hedge, not a candle chart黄金看流动性，不看五分钟K线
M2 inversion, cost floor, peak drawdown and Shanghai premium in one decision layer.把 M2 倒挂、成本底、距高点回撤和境内溢价放在同一层判断。
XAU 4005.2 · M2 96.1% · Watch — Waiting for Better Entry金价 4005.2 · M2 96.1% · 观察 — 等待更好入场点Spot XAU/USD现货金价
$4,005.2 -0.19% 1DWestwind M2 inversion system西风 M2 倒挂体系
Watch — Waiting for Better EntryUS M2美国 M223.06T / 24T
Status状态Normal Range正常区间
Gold Price (XAU/USD) · 250 days金价 (XAU/USD) · 250天
Bollinger Deviation · 250 days布林带偏离 · 250天
Gold / M2 Ratio金价 / M2 比值
173.7100–250 range
Shanghai Premium境内溢价
+0.09%−2% to +5% range
Active Positions 当前持仓
The 7 names that earned conviction 值得信念的 7 只
Each card shows sector tags, one-line thesis, distance to stop, and target. 每张卡片显示板块标签、一句逻辑、距止损线距离和目标价。
7 holdings · 2 high conviction7 只持仓 · 2 只高信念 AAPL 🇺🇸
Cash flow moat + AI on-device optionality + buyback compound. Hold-forever core. 现金流护城河 + 端侧 AI 期权 + 回购复利。永远不卖核心。
Drivers 主要驱动
DRAM 🇺🇸
Memory/storage semiconductor cycle play — SK Hynix, Micron, Samsung weighted. HBM demand inflection from AI compute. 内存/存储芯片周期 — SK Hynix、Micron、Samsung 权重最大。HBM 需求受益于 AI 算力爆发。
Drivers 主要驱动
ILMN 🇺🇸
NVDA 🇺🇸
AI infrastructure monopoly. 80%+ share in training & inference GPUs. Blackwell ramp + sovereign AI demand + Vera Rubin roadmap drive 30%+ revenue CAGR. H20 ban is noise — demand absorbed by other regions. AI基础设施核心垄断者，训练+推理GPU份额80%+。Blackwell放量+主权AI需求+Vera Rubin路线图三重驱动。H20禁令是短期噪音。
Drivers 主要驱动
OUST 🇺🇸
Digital lidar leader for autonomous vehicles and industrial automation — SPAD-based architecture enables lower cost and higher reliability vs legacy analog lidar 自动驾驶与工业自动化数字激光雷达领导者 — SPAD架构实现比传统模拟雷达更低成本更高可靠性
Drivers 主要驱动
QQQ 🇺🇸
Nasdaq-100 broad exposure. Core beta for US tech growth. Complements individual stock picks with diversified large-cap tech exposure. 纳指100宽基配置，美股科技增长核心beta。补充个股持仓的分散化大盘科技敞口。
Drivers 主要驱动
SPCX 🇺🇸
Trade Replays · Closed Positions 交易回放 · 已清仓
Wins, near-misses, and the lesson attached to each 每笔清仓都带一条 lesson
Trade points marked: first entry, add, sell, stop-triggered exit. The annotation is the reasoning at the time — not edited after the fact. 每个关键交易点都标注：首次建仓、加仓、减仓、触发止损。备注是当时的判断，事后不改。
23 clearances23 条清仓记录 VGT Vanguard Information Technology ETF Vanguard 信息技术 ETF
entry $116.0617
Built position 分批建仓 Rex broker order list screenshot; filled buy order · BIT融资账户买入 · 加仓VGT · BIT.com auto-sync Rex broker order list screenshot; filled buy order · BIT融资账户买入 · 加仓VGT · BIT.com auto-sync exit $117.34
Closed position 清仓 Full exit detected from Convex position status. 根据 Convex 持仓状态识别为已清仓。 SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF VanEck 半导体 ETF
entry $580.7409
Built position 分批建仓 Rex broker order list screenshot; filled buy order · BIT融资账户买入 · 建仓 VanEck 半导体 ETF · 加仓SMH · BIT.com auto-sync Rex broker order list screenshot; filled buy order · BIT融资账户买入 · 建仓 VanEck 半导体 ETF · 加仓SMH · BIT.com auto-sync exit $609.8143
Closed via staged sells 分批清仓 减持2股。获利了结部分半导体ETF仓位。 减持2股。获利了结部分半导体ETF仓位。 CEG CEG CEG
entry $300.8217
Built position 分批建仓 美股成长建仓 · BIT MP00002929 filled buy order 1243924904412209152: CEG 5 @ 305.78 USD, 2026-05-26 09:53:28 ET 美股成长建仓 · BIT MP00002929 filled buy order 1243924904412209152: CEG 5 @ 305.78 USD, 2026-05-26 09:53:28 ET exit $290.2642
Closed via staged sells 分批清仓 清仓：截图成交，Constellation Energy sold at 305.46 · 反弹10%清仓离场。能源板块缺乏支撑，买在高点属情绪化建仓。回归主线+指数。 · BIT.com auto-sync 清仓：截图成交，Constellation Energy sold at 305.46 · 反弹10%清仓离场。能源板块缺乏支撑，买在高点属情绪化建仓。回归主线+指数。 · BIT.com auto-sync GOOGL GOOGL GOOGL
entry $363.9843
Built position 分批建仓 Screenshot filled buy: GOOGL 2 @ 386.98; screenshot has no date/time, used local date 2026-05-22 · 加仓GOOGL · BIT.com manual sync Screenshot filled buy: GOOGL 2 @ 386.98; screenshot has no date/time, used local date 2026-05-22 · 加仓GOOGL · BIT.com manual sync exit $345.29
Closed via staged sells 分批清仓 清仓——模型能力落后+人才竞争无亮点，thesis失效。转向指数+NVDA/AAPL等现金流标的。 · BIT.com auto-sync 清仓——模型能力落后+人才竞争无亮点，thesis失效。转向指数+NVDA/AAPL等现金流标的。 · BIT.com auto-sync RKLB RKLB RKLB
entry $105.05
Built position 分批建仓 RKLB建仓 SpaceX生态 太空经济 · BIT.com manual sync RKLB建仓 SpaceX生态 太空经济 · BIT.com manual sync exit $82.22
Closed position 清仓 全部清仓25股。情绪面持续恶化+资金无进场迹象，放弃拆仓策略直接退出。原计划15core+10trim，改为全出。 全部清仓25股。情绪面持续恶化+资金无进场迹象，放弃拆仓策略直接退出。原计划15core+10trim，改为全出。 PLTR PLTR PLTR
entry $131.535
Opened position 建立仓位 Swing Trade — 波段建仓，stop $122.50, TP1 $142, TP2 $155 Swing Trade — 波段建仓，stop $122.50, TP1 $142, TP2 $155 exit $113.43
Closed position 清仓 止损离场——支撑破位后2日无反弹无资金进场。原计划stop $122.50未执行，手动延迟2天卖出。 止损离场——支撑破位后2日无反弹无资金进场。原计划stop $122.50未执行，手动延迟2天卖出。 AVGO AVGO AVGO
entry $394.24
Opened position 建立仓位 AVGO建仓 AI定制芯片+数据中心网络 AVGO建仓 AI定制芯片+数据中心网络 exit $402.1762
Closed position 清仓 BIT.com auto-sync BIT.com auto-sync 518880 Gold ETF 黄金ETF
entry ¥8.9128
Built position 分批建仓 初始建仓黄金ETF · 加仓黄金ETF · 新建仓黄金ETF 初始建仓黄金ETF · 加仓黄金ETF · 新建仓黄金ETF exit ¥8.975
Closed via staged sells 分批清仓 截图成交：黄金ETF 09:42:19 全部成交 · 截图成交：黄金ETF 09:45:49 全部成交 截图成交：黄金ETF 09:42:19 全部成交 · 截图成交：黄金ETF 09:45:49 全部成交 159381 ChiNext AI ETF 创业板人工智能ETF华夏
entry ¥1.1344
Built position 分批建仓 历史补录：rexliu-website commit 02fee2dd 初始 A股 ETF 持仓，纯交易日志，不改 materialized position · 竞价买入 11:21:27 · 竞价买入 14:52:03 · 份额拆分/券商持仓校准：华夏创业板人工智能ETF 2026-06-02 权益登记、2026-06-03 1:2 拆分；将系统持仓调至截图卖出前 110400 份 · 国泰海通买入 历史补录：rexliu-website commit 02fee2dd 初始 A股 ETF 持仓，纯交易日志，不改 materialized position · 竞价买入 11:21:27 · 竞价买入 14:52:03 · 份额拆分/券商持仓校准：华夏创业板人工智能ETF 2026-06-02 权益登记、2026-06-03 1:2 拆分；将系统持仓调至截图卖出前 110400 份 · 国泰海通买入 exit ¥1.365
Closed position 清仓 截图成交：创业板人工智能 09:36:46 全部成交 截图成交：创业板人工智能 09:36:46 全部成交 588000 STAR 50 ETF 科创50ETF
entry ¥1.8162
Built position 分批建仓 科创50ETF竞价买入 · 竞价买入 10:21:36 · 竞价买入 14:50:14 · 国泰海通买入 · 科创50加仓 科创50ETF竞价买入 · 竞价买入 10:21:36 · 竞价买入 14:50:14 · 国泰海通买入 · 科创50加仓 exit ¥1.938
Closed via staged sells 分批清仓 科创50 卖出 全部成交 14:52:59 · 科创50 卖出 全部成交 14:54:08 科创50 卖出 全部成交 14:52:59 · 科创50 卖出 全部成交 14:54:08 159632 NASDAQ ETF Huaxia/HuaAn 纳斯达克ETF华安
entry ¥2.3735
Built position 分批建仓 国泰海通买入 · 纳斯达克ETF加仓 · 加仓纳斯达克ETF 国泰海通买入 · 纳斯达克ETF加仓 · 加仓纳斯达克ETF exit ¥2.483
Closed position 清仓 截图成交：纳斯达克ETF华安 09:38:33 全部成交 截图成交：纳斯达克ETF华安 09:38:33 全部成交 MU MU MU
entry $850.3035
Opened position 建立仓位 BIT MP00002929 order-list screenshot; filled buy: 美光科技 3 @ 850.3035 BIT MP00002929 order-list screenshot; filled buy: 美光科技 3 @ 850.3035 exit $1003.436
Closed via staged sells 分批清仓 BIT.com auto-sync · 减仓MU · 清仓MU BIT.com auto-sync · 减仓MU · 清仓MU SNDK SNDK SNDK
entry $1590
Opened position 建立仓位 BIT MP00002929 order-list screenshot; filled buy: 闪迪 1 @ 1590.0000 BIT MP00002929 order-list screenshot; filled buy: 闪迪 1 @ 1590.0000 exit $1644.4404
Closed position 清仓 BIT account limit sell, cleared position BIT account limit sell, cleared position IREN IREN IREN
entry $62.63
Opened position 建立仓位 Generated from Convex buy records. 由 Convex 买入记录生成。 exit $65.67
Closed position 清仓 BIT.com auto-sync BIT.com auto-sync QTUM QTUM QTUM
entry $146.38
Opened position 建立仓位 Screenshot filled buy: QTUM 7 @ 146.38, 2026-05-21 09:36:07 ET Screenshot filled buy: QTUM 7 @ 146.38, 2026-05-21 09:36:07 ET exit $157.63
Closed via staged sells 分批清仓 Take profit on satellite position Take profit on satellite position BOTZ BOTZ BOTZ
entry $40.33
Built position 分批建仓 Screenshot filled buy: BOTZ 10 @ 39.20, 2026-05-21 09:34:11 ET · Screenshot filled buy: BOTZ 10 @ 40.36; screenshot has no date/time, used local date 2026-05-22 · BIT MP00002929 order-list screenshot; filled buy: Global X Robotics & AI ETF 20 @ 40.8800 Screenshot filled buy: BOTZ 10 @ 39.20, 2026-05-21 09:34:11 ET · Screenshot filled buy: BOTZ 10 @ 40.36; screenshot has no date/time, used local date 2026-05-22 · BIT MP00002929 order-list screenshot; filled buy: Global X Robotics & AI ETF 20 @ 40.8800 exit $40.07
Closed position 清仓 Full exit detected from Convex position status. 根据 Convex 持仓状态识别为已清仓。 UFO UFO UFO
entry $65.18
Opened position 建立仓位 BIT MP00002929 order-list screenshot; filled buy: Procure Space ETF 15 @ 65.1800 BIT MP00002929 order-list screenshot; filled buy: Procure Space ETF 15 @ 65.1800 exit $66.15
Closed position 清仓 Full exit detected from Convex position status. 根据 Convex 持仓状态识别为已清仓。 NOW NOW NOW
entry $100.95
Built position 分批建仓 建仓 ServiceNow · 加仓 ServiceNow 第二笔 · BIT platform buy 5 shares 建仓 ServiceNow · 加仓 ServiceNow 第二笔 · BIT platform buy 5 shares exit $107.9025
Closed via staged sells 分批清仓 BIT.com auto-sync BIT.com auto-sync POET POET Technologies POET科技
entry $18.56
Opened position 建立仓位 BIT融资账户新建仓 BIT融资账户新建仓 exit $16.5
Closed position 清仓 清仓卖出 POET Technologies 清仓卖出 POET Technologies 01816 CGN Power 中国广核电力
entry HK$3.44
Opened position 建立仓位 电力能源组合建仓（港股通） 电力能源组合建仓（港股通） exit HK$2.922
Closed position 清仓 港股清仓，转A股003816 港股清仓，转A股003816 TSLA TSLA TSLA
entry $382.4
Opened position 建立仓位 Rex 手动交易 4/23 Rex 手动交易 4/23 exit $427.725
Closed position 清仓 Rex 手动卖出；订单 1237404052984213504；截图显示 BIT(MP00002929)，系统按现有 TSLA 美股账户记录；成交金额 855.45 USD；10:01:56 美东 Rex 手动卖出；订单 1237404052984213504；截图显示 BIT(MP00002929)，系统按现有 TSLA 美股账户记录；成交金额 855.45 USD；10:01:56 美东 HOOD Robinhood Markets Robinhood
entry 82.3
Built swing position 建仓波段 Avg cost $82.30. Prediction market + crypto flywheel thesis. 均价 $82.30。预测市场 + 加密飞轮逻辑。 exit 89.71
Full exit at target 目标价清仓 Exit at $89.71. +9.0% realized, $148 profit. 清仓 $89.71。实现 +9.0%，盈利 $148。 equipment-combo Capacity Equipment Combo · 3 stocks 产能设备组合 · 三只
Basket 组合成分
600031 Sany Heavy 三一重工 + 5.9%
14d 14天 601100 Hengli Hydraulics 恒立液压 + 7.7%
7d 7天 560280 Construction Machinery ETF 工程机械ETF + 2.7%
14d 14天
entry
Theme-driven entry, signal not yet fired 主题驱动建仓，信号未触发 Sany + ETF. RSI 40.7 vs <30 required 三一 + ETF。RSI 40.7 未到严格阈值 <30 catalyst
Sany FY2025 earnings beat 三一年报催化 Net profit +41.2% YoY, overseas revenue 64% 归母 +41.2%、海外收入 64%，超预期 exit
Full clearance on tariff shock + stop rule 关税冲击 + 止盈规则清仓 Sany +5.9%, Hengli +7.7%, ETF +2.7% 三一 +5.9%，恒立 +7.7%，ETF +2.7% Methodology · 8-Stage Funnel 方法论 · 八阶段漏斗
From macro thermometer to post-trade review 从宏观温度计到持仓复盘
Every position passes through these stages. Some are automated cron tasks, some require human judgment. Round-trip is weeks, not days. 每个持仓都要走过这些阶段。部分是自动 cron，部分需要人工判断。完整走一圈以周为单位，不是天。
8-stage funnel · automated + manual八阶段漏斗 · 自动 + 人工 0
Macro Thermometer 宏观温度计
✓ Daily 每日Read market regime: offensive / neutral / defensive 判断市场温度：进攻 / 中性 / 防御
1
Sector Research 赛道研究
○ Manual 手动1-2 day deep report before picking stocks 选股之前先做重度赛道报告
2
Watchlist Scan 个股池初筛
✓ Daily 每日15 tickers, 5-dimension filter → 10-20 names 15 只标的五维扫描 → 10-20 家观察名单
3
Short List 短名单
✓ Daily 每日Valuation + catalyst + technicals → 3-5 names 估值 + 催化 + 技术面 → 3-5 家可操作短名单
4
Deep Research 深度研究
○ Skill SkillSkill: 4+1 card per company, 3 hard theses Skill：每家公司 4+1 段名片 + 三条硬结论
5
Roundtable 圆桌讨论
○ Skill Skill6-seat masters challenge the theses; dissent required 6 席位大师挑战结论；反方必选
6
Execution Plan 执行计划
✓ Scorecard 评分卡10-point scorecard ≥7, R:R ≥ 2.0, 3 stop-lines 10 分评分卡 ≥7，R:R ≥ 2.0，3 条撤退线
MA200 支撑 RSI 量价
R:R ≥ 2.0
Score ≥ 7 / 10 to trade ≥ 7/10 才下单
7
Position Management 持仓管理 + 复盘
✓ 4-tier 四层L0-L3 monitoring + monthly/quarterly/annual reviews L0-L3 四层监控 + 月/季/年复盘
Monthly 月度 Quarterly 季度 Annual 年度