Build in Public · Portfolio 公开建造 · 持仓驾驶舱
Portfolio · Conviction on Display 持仓 · 公开的决策
No amounts. Just sectors, theses, stages, and the scorecard behind every position. 不公开金额。只展示板块、逻辑、阶段，以及每个仓位背后的评分卡。
Current Regime 当前宏观 Defensive 防御期
🕐 Last updated: 2026-10-18 🕐 最后更新: 2026-10-18
Macro Thermometer 宏观温度计
The market temperature we're trading against 我们在和什么样的市场做交易
Defensive · 0/3 green防御期 · 0/3 绿灯 10Y UST 5.1%
DXY 101.91
VIX 19.99
NAAIM 69.4
Policy Stalemate 胶着
VIX & Regime · 60 days VIX 与 Regime · 60 天
Shaded bands mark regime transitions (green = offensive, amber = neutral, red = defensive). VIX line is the mood overlay. 色段为 regime 状态（绿=进攻、黄=中性、红=防御）。VIX 折线是情绪指标。
Allocation · Target vs Current 资产配置 · 目标 vs 当前
Five buckets, conviction on display 五桶资产，信念展示
Dalio three-bucket framework. Percentages are strategic targets; drift chips show current distance from each target. 达利欧三桶法框架。百分比是战略目标，偏差 chip 显示当前距目标的距离。
Stablecoin Yield 36.2% · Funds 33.8% · Gold 4.2% · Stocks 19.1% · Crypto 6.7%稳定币生息 36.2% · 基金与现金 33.8% · 黄金 4.2% · 股票 19.1% · 加密敞口 6.7% Stablecoin Yield 稳定币生息 36.2% + 2.4pp
Funds 基金与现金 33.8% + 1.5pp
Gold 黄金 4.2% -0.2pp
Stocks 股票 19.1% -4.4pp
Crypto 加密敞口 6.7% + 0.8pp
Allocation Drift 配置偏移趋势
- - target- - 目标Capital Mobility Risk 资本流动风险
6/10 Elevated · Tightening 升温 · 收紧
Policy Pressure 政策压力 2/2
Channel Friction 通道摩擦 1/2
Legal Quota Pressure 合法额度压力 1/2
Enforcement Intensity 执法强度 1/2
Reversibility Risk 可逆性风险 1/2
Cross-border investment access is tightening; treat offshore liquidity as a strategic constraint, not just a yield choice. 跨境投资通道正在收紧；境外流动性应被视为战略约束，而不只是收益选择。
Risk Profile 风险画像
12/100 Defensive 防御型
Weighted Return 加权收益 5.7% → 5.6%
Portfolio Volatility 组合波动率 7.5% → 7%
Sharpe Ratio 夏普比率 0.24 → 0.24
Sharpe = (return − risk_free) / vol. Higher = better risk-adjusted return. 夏普比率 = (收益率 − 无风险利率) / 波动率。越高代表风险调整后收益越好。
Portfolio Health 组合健康度
0.0 /5.0
Weak 偏弱 Composite score across quant factors — valuation, momentum, growth & risk. Higher = stronger fundamental & technical positioning. 量化综合评分，涵盖估值、动量、成长性与风险四因子。越高代表基本面和技术面定位越强。
Health Trend 健康度趋势
Portfolio Beta 组合Beta
1.47 / 1.00
Portfolio / Equity-only β 全组合 / 仅股票 β Sensitivity to market moves. β=1 tracks the market; >1 amplifies swings; <1 dampens them. Portfolio β blends all assets; equity β isolates stock exposure. 对市场波动的敏感度。β=1 跟随大盘，>1 放大波动，<1 缓冲波动。组合 β 包含所有资产，股票 β 仅衡量股票敞口。
Beta Trend Beta趋势
Stablecoin Yield 稳定币生息
Target 目标 36.2%
Current 当前 38.6%
Exp. Return 预期年化 5%
Volatility 波动率 1%
Base layer — yield-producing, low beta, recession-resistant 底座层——带息、低 beta、抗衰退
Funds 基金与现金
Target 目标 33.8%
Current 当前 35.3%
Exp. Return 预期年化 3.5%
Volatility 波动率 3%
Cash buffer + conservative wealth management + earmarked funds (housing, education, receivable) 现金缓冲 + 保守理财 + 专项资金（买房/教育/应收）
Gold 黄金
Target 目标 4.2%
Current 当前 4%
Exp. Return 预期年化 3.5%
Volatility 波动率 20.1%
Long-cycle liquidity hedge — not a candle chart. M2 inversion system entry. 长周期流动性对冲——不看五分钟K线。M2 倒挂体系入场。
Stocks 股票
Target 目标 19.1%
Current 当前 14.7%
Exp. Return 预期年化 7.9%
Volatility 波动率 16%
Long + swing mix — AI-electricity core with opportunistic overlays 长期 + 波段组合——AI 电力核心 + 机会主义叠加
A-share A 股 10.8%
US 美股 2.6%
Global Funds 全球基金 1.1%
Hong Kong 港股 0.2%
Crypto 加密敞口
Target 目标 6.7%
Current 当前 7.5%
Exp. Return 预期年化 15%
Volatility 波动率 32.5%
Asymmetric bet — long-duration, non-correlated, high-volatility core 不对称下注——长久期、低相关、高波动核心
Crypto Dashboard 加密看板
Crypto Market Intelligence 加密市场全景
Crypto radar, market temperature, and on-chain metrics. 加密雷达、市场温度与链上指标。
Composite 55.7/100 · FGI 53 综合 55.7/100 · FGI 53Market Pulse 市场脉搏
55.7 /100 Greed贪婪
↓ 0.6 vs yesterday较昨日
Crypto Tracker Indicators 加密追踪指标
Indicator指标 Status状态 Detail详情 Chg变化
Fear & Greed Index市场极度恐慌 Current:53当前:53 ↓2
Miner Capitulation矿工投降 Drawdown: -5.9%回撤: -5.9% ↓0.2
Black Swan Intensity黑天鹅强度 BSS:0.0BSS:0.0 →0
Macro VIX宏观股市熊市 VIX:20.0VIX:20.0 →0
OTC Reserve (SSR)场外资金储备 SSR:9.5%SSR:9.5%, 适度观望 →0
MVRV Z-ScoreMVRV Z-Score Z:0.25Z:0.25, 合理区间 ↑0.03
BTC ETF FlowBTC ETF资金流 -82.4M, Neutral Flow, :2026-10-16, :farside-82.4M, 资金中性, 观测日:2026-10-16, 来源:farside —
Dollar Index (DXY)美元指数DXY DXY:101.8DXY:101.8, 美元中性 →0
BTC Price & Sentiment Trend BTC 价格与情绪趋势
Portfolio Value Index 持仓价值指数
Indexed (base=100)基准=100 Max DD最大回撤 -6.19%
Current DD当前回撤 -0.49%
BTC BetaBTC Beta 0.06
Ann. Vol年化波动 9.97%
Gold Tracker · Long-cycle dashboard黄金跟踪 · 长周期仪表盘
Gold is a liquidity hedge, not a candle chart黄金看流动性，不看五分钟K线
Allocation decides whether to add, weekly defenses decide when, and M2/premium decide execution speed and instrument.先看配置缺口，再看周线档位；M2 与境内溢价只决定执行速度和工具选择。
Wait for weekly defense · allocation 4% / 4.2%等待周线防区 · 配置 4% / 目标 4.2%Spot XAU/USD现货金价
$4,197.2 -0.45% 1DWestwind M2 inversion system西风 M2 倒挂体系
M2 · Normal RangeM2 · 正常区间US M2美国 M223.31T / 24T
Status状态Normal Range正常区间
01
Allocation gate配置层4% current / 4.2% target当前 4% / 目标 4.2%
Wait for weekly defense等待周线防区 02
Weekly defense价格层Weekly mid $4,281.29周线中轨 $4,281.29
-2.0% 03
Instrument gate工具层Mainland gold trades at 0.64% discount境内金折价 0.64%
Only after trigger触发后再选工具 Gold Price (XAU/USD) · 250 days金价 (XAU/USD) · 250天
Bollinger Deviation · 250 days布林带偏离 · 250天
Gold / M2 Ratio金价 / M2 比值
180.1100–250 range
Shanghai Premium境内溢价
-0.64%−2% to +5% range
Active Positions 当前持仓
The 4 names that earned conviction 值得信念的 4 只
Each card shows sector tags, one-line thesis, distance to stop, and target. 每张卡片显示板块标签、一句逻辑、距止损线距离和目标价。
4 holdings · 0 high conviction4 只持仓 · 0 只高信念 513100 🇨🇳
Rex-confirmed long-term holding; may trim modestly if valuations become excessive. No valuation threshold, trim size or DCA budget/frequency specified; no tactical +2% half-sale or trailing exit. Basis is the rounded three-decimal broker display, not audited exact cash cost. Rex明确长期持有，未来若估值高估可能小幅减仓；估值阈值、减仓比例与定投预算频率未设定，不套短线+2%卖半/移动止盈。成本为券商三位小数显示值，精确投入与费用未核。
513390 🇨🇳
Rex-confirmed long-term holding; may trim modestly if valuations become excessive. No valuation threshold, trim size or DCA budget/frequency specified; no tactical +2% half-sale or trailing exit. Basis is the rounded three-decimal broker display, not audited exact cash cost. Rex明确长期持有，未来若估值高估可能小幅减仓；估值阈值、减仓比例与定投预算频率未设定，不套短线+2%卖半/移动止盈。成本为券商三位小数显示值，精确投入与费用未核。
BTC ₿
Non-derivative bet on sovereign money. DCA through bottom-tracker signals — the system doesn't predict price, it detects accumulation windows. 非衍生品的货币主权押注。通过底部追踪信号 DCA——系统不预测价格，只判断建仓窗口。
Drivers 主要驱动
SNEK ₿
Personal long-term lottery holding. No current sale and no regular portfolio budget; review only on structural protocol security, liquidity, or Cardano ecosystem failure. 个人长期彩票仓，当前暂不卖、不追加常规投资预算；仅在协议安全、持续流动性或 Cardano 生态结构性失效时复核。
Drivers 主要驱动
Methodology · 8-Stage Funnel 方法论 · 八阶段漏斗
From macro thermometer to post-trade review 从宏观温度计到持仓复盘
Every position passes through these stages. Some are automated cron tasks, some require human judgment. Round-trip is weeks, not days. 每个持仓都要走过这些阶段。部分是自动 cron，部分需要人工判断。完整走一圈以周为单位，不是天。
8-stage funnel · automated + manual八阶段漏斗 · 自动 + 人工 0
Macro Thermometer 宏观温度计
✓ Daily 每日Read market regime: offensive / neutral / defensive 判断市场温度：进攻 / 中性 / 防御
1
Sector Research 赛道研究
○ Manual 手动1-2 day deep report before picking stocks 选股之前先做重度赛道报告
2
Watchlist Scan 个股池初筛
✓ Daily 每日15 tickers, 5-dimension filter → 10-20 names 15 只标的五维扫描 → 10-20 家观察名单
3
Short List 短名单
✓ Daily 每日Valuation + catalyst + technicals → 3-5 names 估值 + 催化 + 技术面 → 3-5 家可操作短名单
4
Deep Research 深度研究
○ Skill SkillSkill: 4+1 card per company, 3 hard theses Skill：每家公司 4+1 段名片 + 三条硬结论
5
Roundtable 圆桌讨论
○ Skill Skill6-seat masters challenge the theses; dissent required 6 席位大师挑战结论；反方必选
6
Execution Plan 执行计划
✓ Scorecard 评分卡10-point scorecard ≥7, R:R ≥ 2.0, 3 stop-lines 10 分评分卡 ≥7，R:R ≥ 2.0，3 条撤退线
MA200 支撑 RSI 量价
R:R ≥ 2.0
Score ≥ 7 / 10 to trade ≥ 7/10 才下单
7
Position Management 持仓管理 + 复盘
✓ 4-tier 四层L0-L3 monitoring + monthly/quarterly/annual reviews L0-L3 四层监控 + 月/季/年复盘
Monthly 月度 Quarterly 季度 Annual 年度