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Build in Public · Portfolio 公开建造 · 持仓驾驶舱

Portfolio · Conviction on Display 持仓 · 公开的决策

No amounts. Just sectors, theses, stages, and the scorecard behind every position. 不公开金额。只展示板块、逻辑、阶段，以及每个仓位背后的评分卡。

Current Regime 当前宏观 Neutral 中性期 2 / 4 green · Aggression 中 2/4 绿灯 · 激进度 中
Active Positions 活跃持仓 18
Markets 市场 2
Tracked Rules 监控规则 53
Upcoming Events 预告事件 12
Scan Hits (≥5) 扫描信号 10
Last Clearance 上次清仓 8d ago

🕐 Last updated: 2026-05-27 🕐 最后更新: 2026-05-27

Macro Thermometer 宏观温度计

The market temperature we're trading against 我们在和什么样的市场做交易

Neutral · 2/4 green中性期 · 2/4 绿灯
10Y UST 4.49%
DXY 99.08
VIX 17.01
NAAIM 82.02
Policy Stalemate 胶着

VIX & Regime · 60 days VIX 与 Regime · 60 天

Shaded bands mark regime transitions (green = offensive, amber = neutral, red = defensive). VIX line is the mood overlay. 色段为 regime 状态（绿=进攻、黄=中性、红=防御）。VIX 折线是情绪指标。

Allocation · Target vs Current 资产配置 · 目标 vs 当前

Five buckets, conviction on display 五桶资产，信念展示

Dalio three-bucket framework. Percentages are strategic targets; drift chips show current distance from each target. 达利欧三桶法框架。百分比是战略目标，偏差 chip 显示当前距目标的距离。

Stablecoin Yield 30.9% · Funds 30.6% · Gold 3.3% · Stocks 26.4% · Crypto 8.8%稳定币生息 30.9% · 基金与现金 30.6% · 黄金 3.3% · 股票 26.4% · 加密敞口 8.8%
TARGET 目标配比 vs CURRENT 当前持仓
Stablecoin Yield 稳定币生息 30.9% + 4.2pp
Funds 基金与现金 30.6% + 7.3pp
Gold 黄金 3.3% + 0.3pp
Stocks 股票 26.4% -11.8pp
Crypto 加密敞口 8.8% + 0pp

Allocation Drift 配置偏移趋势

0% 15% 30% 45% 2026-022026-032026-042026-05 Stablecoin Yield稳定币生息 Funds基金与现金 Gold黄金 Stocks股票 Crypto加密敞口 - - target- - 目标

Capital Mobility Risk 资本流动风险

6/10 Elevated · Tightening 升温 · 收紧
Policy: High 政策: 偏高 Channels: Tightening 通道: 收紧 QDII: Watch QDII: 观察
Policy Pressure 政策压力 2/2
Channel Friction 通道摩擦 1/2
Legal Quota Pressure 合法额度压力 1/2
Enforcement Intensity 执法强度 1/2
Reversibility Risk 可逆性风险 1/2

Cross-border investment access is tightening; treat offshore liquidity as a strategic constraint, not just a yield choice. 跨境投资通道正在收紧；境外流动性应被视为战略约束，而不只是收益选择。

Risk Profile 风险画像

16/100 Defensive 防御型
Weighted Return 加权收益 6.4% → 5.7%
Portfolio Volatility 组合波动率 12.2% → 9.8%
Sharpe Ratio 夏普比率 0.23 → 0.22

Sharpe = (return − risk_free) / vol. Higher = better risk-adjusted return. 夏普比率 = (收益率 − 无风险利率) / 波动率。越高代表风险调整后收益越好。

Portfolio Health 组合健康度

4.1 /5.0
Healthy 健康

Composite score across quant factors — valuation, momentum, growth & risk. Higher = stronger fundamental & technical positioning. 量化综合评分，涵盖估值、动量、成长性与风险四因子。越高代表基本面和技术面定位越强。

Health Trend 健康度趋势

Portfolio Beta 组合Beta

1.43 / 1.47
Portfolio / Equity-only β 全组合 / 仅股票 β

Sensitivity to market moves. β=1 tracks the market; >1 amplifies swings; <1 dampens them. Portfolio β blends all assets; equity β isolates stock exposure. 对市场波动的敏感度。β=1 跟随大盘，>1 放大波动，<1 缓冲波动。组合 β 包含所有资产，股票 β 仅衡量股票敞口。

Beta Trend Beta趋势

Stablecoin Yield 稳定币生息

Target 目标 30.9%
Current 当前 35.1%
Exp. Return 预期年化 5%
Volatility 波动率 1%
USDT USDT USDC USDC 5% APY 5% 年化

Base layer — yield-producing, low beta, recession-resistant 底座层——带息、低 beta、抗衰退

Funds 基金与现金

Target 目标 30.6%
Current 当前 37.9%
Exp. Return 预期年化 3.1%
Volatility 波动率 3%
Cash & Deposits 银行活期 High-end Wealth Mgmt 高端稳健 Education Fund 教育基金

Cash buffer + conservative wealth management + earmarked funds (housing, education, receivable) 现金缓冲 + 保守理财 + 专项资金（买房/教育/应收）

Gold 黄金

Target 目标 3.3%
Current 当前 3.6%
Exp. Return 预期年化 3.5%
Volatility 波动率 27%
XAU ETF 黄金 ETF Liquidity Hedge 流动性对冲

Long-cycle liquidity hedge — not a candle chart. M2 inversion system entry. 长周期流动性对冲——不看五分钟K线。M2 倒挂体系入场。

Stocks 股票

Target 目标 26.4%
Current 当前 14.6%
Exp. Return 预期年化 9.5%
Volatility 波动率 23.5%
AI Power AI 电力 Core Infra 核心基建 US Megacap 美股大盘

Long + swing mix — AI-electricity core with opportunistic overlays 长期 + 波段组合——AI 电力核心 + 机会主义叠加

A-share A 股 13.2%
US 美股 0.7%
Global Funds 全球基金 0.4%

Crypto 加密敞口

Target 目标 8.8%
Current 当前 8.8%
Exp. Return 预期年化 14.1%
Volatility 波动率 44.5%
BTC BTC SNEK SNEK

Asymmetric bet — long-duration, non-correlated, high-volatility core 不对称下注——长久期、低相关、高波动核心

Crypto Dashboard 加密看板

Crypto Market Intelligence 加密市场全景

Crypto radar, market temperature, and on-chain metrics. 加密雷达、市场温度与链上指标。

Composite 43.6/100 · FGI 33 综合 43.6/100 · FGI 33

Market Pulse 市场脉搏

Extreme Fear极度恐惧 Extreme Greed极度贪婪
43.6 /100 Fear恐惧
↑ 3.9 vs yesterday较昨日

Crypto Tracker Indicators 加密追踪指标

Indicator指标 Status状态 Detail详情 Chg变化
Fear & Greed Index市场极度恐慌 Current:34当前:34 ↑4
Miner Capitulation矿工投降 Drawdown: -21.9%回撤: -21.9% ↓1.7
Black Swan Intensity黑天鹅强度 BSS:31.2BSS:31.2 ↓0.8
Macro VIX宏观股市熊市 VIX:17.0VIX:17.0 ↑0.4
OTC Reserve (SSR)场外资金储备 SSR:10.2%, Abundant OTCSSR:10.2%, 场外充裕 →0
MVRV Z-ScoreMVRV Z-Score Z:-1.06, Severely UndervaluedZ:-1.06, 严重低估 ↓0.07
BTC ETF FlowBTC ETF资金流 +112M, Neutral Flow+112M, 资金中性 ↑126
Dollar Index (DXY)美元指数DXY DXY:99.1, Weak USD risk-onDXY:99.1, 美元偏弱 ↓0.1

BTC Price & Sentiment Trend BTC 价格与情绪趋势

100K90K80K71K61K 0255075100 12-2901-2802-2703-2904-2805-27 BTC ($)BTC 价格 Composite综合指数

Portfolio Value Index 持仓价值指数

105.0102.5100.097.595.0 25-01-0125-03-1725-05-3125-08-1425-10-2826-01-1126-05-01 Indexed (base=100)基准=100
Max DD最大回撤 -6.19%
Current DD当前回撤 -0.49%
BTC BetaBTC Beta 0.06
Ann. Vol年化波动 9.97%

Gold Tracker · Long-cycle dashboard黄金跟踪 · 长周期仪表盘

Gold is a liquidity hedge, not a candle chart黄金看流动性，不看五分钟K线

M2 inversion, cost floor, peak drawdown and Shanghai premium in one decision layer.把 M2 倒挂、成本底、距高点回撤和境内溢价放在同一层判断。

XAU 4503.5 · M2 95.3% · Watch — Waiting for Better Entry金价 4503.5 · M2 95.3% · 观察 — 等待更好入场点

Spot XAU/USD现货金价

$4,503.5 -0.39% 1D
-18.12% from peak

Westwind M2 inversion system西风 M2 倒挂体系

Watch — Waiting for Better Entry
US M2美国 M222.88T / 24T
Status状态Normal Range正常区间

Gold Price (XAU/USD) · 250 days金价 (XAU/USD) · 250天

Bollinger Deviation · 250 days布林带偏离 · 250天

Gold / M2 Ratio金价 / M2 比值

196.8100–250 range

Shanghai Premium境内溢价

-0.24%−2% to +5% range

Active Positions 当前持仓

The 18 names that earned conviction 值得信念的 18 只

Each card shows sector tags, one-line thesis, distance to stop, and target. 每张卡片显示板块标签、一句逻辑、距止损线距离和目标价。

18 holdings · 4 high conviction18 只持仓 · 4 只高信念
AAPL 🇺🇸 🔥
US Megacap 美股大盘 Consumer Tech 消费科技

Cash flow moat + AI on-device optionality + buyback compound. Hold-forever core. 现金流护城河 + 端侧 AI 期权 + 回购复利。永远不卖核心。

Drivers 主要驱动
Free Cash Flow 自由现金流 USD 美元 Regulation 监管
Stop 止损 -28.6%
Target 目标 +0.5%
BOTZ 🇺🇸 🌱
ETF ETF Robotics 机器人 AI Automation AI自动化

Robotics/AI automation ETF. Use as a small thematic satellite and sentiment proxy, not a replacement for core AI compute holdings. 机器人/AI自动化主题ETF。作为小仓位主题卫星和情绪代理，不替代核心AI算力持仓。

No stop 无止损 / No target 无目标
CEG 🇺🇸 🔥
energy 能源 nuclear 核电 utilities 公用事业

Nuclear-powered clean energy; data center power demand upside 核电清洁能源，数据中心电力需求上行

Drivers 主要驱动
AI Capex AI capex PPA Demand 长协/PPA需求 Nuclear Policy 核电政策
Stop止损 -16.9% / No target 无目标
GOOGL 🇺🇸 🔥
US Megacap 美股大盘 AI Software AI软件 Cloud 云计算

Search cash-flow moat + cloud/AI optionality. Gemini/TPU and YouTube provide AI monetization paths; antitrust remains the key risk. 搜索现金流护城河 + 云/AI期权。Gemini/TPU 与 YouTube 提供AI变现路径；反垄断是核心风险。

Stop止损 -18.4% / No target 无目标
MRVL 🇺🇸 🌱
Semiconductor 半导体 AI Infrastructure AI基础设施 Optical Interconnect 光互连

Custom AI silicon + optical/DSP interconnect beneficiary; good company but entry discipline matters after sharp rerating. 定制 AI 芯片 + 光互连/DSP 受益者；公司质地不错，但大幅重估后必须严守买点。

Stop止损 -16.6% / No target 无目标
MU 🇺🇸 🌱
Semiconductor 半导体 Memory 存储器 AI Infrastructure AI基础设施

HBM/DRAM upcycle beneficiary with high AI memory torque; monitor pricing discipline and cycle rollover risk. HBM/DRAM 上行周期受益者，AI 内存弹性强；核心风险是价格纪律与周期反转。

Stop止损 -22.2% / No target 无目标
NVDA 🇺🇸 🔥
Semiconductors 半导体 AI Infrastructure AI基础设施 Data Center 数据中心

AI infrastructure monopoly. 80%+ share in training & inference GPUs. Blackwell ramp + sovereign AI demand + Vera Rubin roadmap drive 30%+ revenue CAGR. H20 ban is noise — demand absorbed by other regions. AI基础设施核心垄断者，训练+推理GPU份额80%+。Blackwell放量+主权AI需求+Vera Rubin路线图三重驱动。H20禁令是短期噪音。

Drivers 主要驱动
AI Capex AI capex Data Center Demand 数据中心需求 Supply Chain 供应链
Stop止损 -18% / No target 无目标
QQQ 🇺🇸 🌱
ETF ETF US Tech 美股科技 Large Cap 大盘

Nasdaq-100 broad exposure. Core beta for US tech growth. Complements individual stock picks with diversified large-cap tech exposure. 纳指100宽基配置，美股科技增长核心beta。补充个股持仓的分散化大盘科技敞口。

Drivers 主要驱动
Rates 利率 Liquidity 流动性 AI Capex AI capex
Stop止损 -20.1% / No target 无目标
QTUM 🇺🇸 🌱
ETF ETF Quantum Computing 量子计算 Deep Tech 硬科技

Quantum-computing thematic ETF. High-volatility optionality basket; size should stay small until commercial traction is clearer. 量子计算主题ETF，高波动期权型篮子；商业化路径更清晰前保持小仓位。

No stop 无止损 / No target 无目标
SMH 🇺🇸 🌱
semiconductor 半导体 etf ETF large-cap 大盘股

Top-10 semiconductor exposure via ETF. NVDA+AVGO+TSMC weighted basket. Large-cap biased, aligned with allocation preference. 半导体行业ETF，重仓NVDA/AVGO/TSMC。大盘股为主，符合仓位偏好。

Drivers 主要驱动
AI Capex AI capex Semiconductor Cycle 半导体周期 Liquidity 流动性
Stop止损 -22.0% / No target 无目标
SNDK 🇺🇸 🌱
Semiconductor 半导体 Storage 存储 NAND NAND

NAND/SSD cycle recovery and AI storage demand proxy; cyclical satellite position, not a core compounder. NAND/SSD 周期修复 + AI 存储需求的高弹性代理，属于周期卫星仓，不是核心长期复利仓。

Stop止损 -18.0% / No target 无目标
UFO 🇺🇸 ❄️
ETF ETF Space 太空经济 Satellite 卫星

Small thematic basket for space/satellite optionality; treat as high-volatility exploration exposure. 太空/卫星产业可选性的主题 ETF，小仓位探索，高波动，不做核心仓。

No stop 无止损 / No target 无目标
VGT 🇺🇸 🌱
ETF ETF US Tech 美股科技 Software 软件

Broad tech sector ETF covering software, hardware, IT services. Diversified tech exposure beyond semiconductors — captures SaaS, cloud, enterprise IT cycle. 科技行业宽基ETF，覆盖软件、硬件、IT服务。半导体之外的分散化科技敞口，捕捉SaaS、云计算、企业IT周期。

Drivers 主要驱动
Rates 利率 Software Earnings 软件盈利 Liquidity 流动性
Stop止损 -21.3% / No target 无目标
AI 人工智能 ChiNext 创业板 Thematic ETF 主题ETF

No stop 无止损 / No target 无目标
STAR Market 科创板 Broad Market ETF 宽基ETF

No stop 无止损 / No target 无目标
IREN 🇺🇸
Bitcoin Mining 比特币挖矿 AI Infrastructure AI基础设施 Renewable Energy 可再生能源

Bitcoin mining + AI data center pivot. Cheap renewable energy advantage for HPC/AI workloads. 比特币挖矿+AI数据中心转型。低成本可再生能源优势支撑HPC/AI算力。

Drivers 主要驱动
BTC Price BTC价格 Energy Costs 能源成本 AI/HPC Demand AI/HPC需求
Stop止损 / No target 无目标

Trade Replays · Closed Positions 交易回放 · 已清仓

Wins, near-misses, and the lesson attached to each 每笔清仓都带一条 lesson

Trade points marked: first entry, add, sell, stop-triggered exit. The annotation is the reasoning at the time — not edited after the fact. 每个关键交易点都标注：首次建仓、加仓、减仓、触发止损。备注是当时的判断，事后不改。

12 clearances12 条清仓记录
NOW ServiceNow ServiceNow
+ 7% 1d 1天 Win 100% 胜率 100% 6 trades 6 笔
Entry $100.95 买入均价 $100.95 Exit $107.9233 卖出均价 $107.9233
Software 软件 AI Workflow AI 工作流 Tactical Trade 战术交易
entry $100.95
Built tactical software position 建立软件反弹仓位 Three buys, avg entry $100.95. Contrarian bet after software-sector capitulation. 三笔买入，均价 $100.95。软件板块被错杀后的反向交易。
exit $107.9233
Closed after fast rebound 快速反弹后清仓 Three manual sells, avg exit $107.92. Realized +6.9% in one day. 三笔手工卖出，均价 $107.92。一天实现 +6.9%。

Reason 原因: Tactical software-rebound trade closed after a fast one-day move. The thesis was not invalidated; the position was too short-cycle to keep once the initial mispricing closed. 软件板块反弹的战术交易，一天内快速修复后清仓。不是 ServiceNow 逻辑失效，而是这笔仓位本来就偏短周期，初始错价修复后不再硬拿。

Lesson 教训: When a high-quality SaaS name is bought as a rebound trade rather than a long-duration compounder, label it that way from entry. Otherwise the exit looks inconsistent with the thesis. 如果买入的是高质量 SaaS 的反弹交易，而不是长期复利仓，建仓时就要标清楚。否则卖出后看起来像 thesis 前后不一致。

POET POET Technologies POET科技
-11% 3d 3天 Win 0% 胜率 0% 2 trades 2 笔
Entry $18.56 买入均价 $18.56 Exit $16.5 卖出均价 $16.5
AI Infrastructure AI基础设施 Photonics 光子芯片 Semiconductors 半导体
entry $18.56
Opened position 建立仓位 BIT融资账户新建仓 BIT融资账户新建仓
exit $16.5
Closed position 清仓 清仓卖出 POET Technologies 清仓卖出 POET Technologies

Reason 原因: Auto-generated closed position from Convex trade and position records. 由 Convex 交易与持仓记录自动生成的清仓记录。

Lesson 教训: Add an editorial lesson in portfolio-overrides clearances only if this exit deserves a manual review. 只有值得复盘的清仓，才需要在 portfolio-overrides clearances 里补充人工经验。

OUST Ouster Ouster
+ 3% 3d 3天 Win 100% 胜率 100% 2 trades 2 笔
Entry $31.5 买入均价 $31.5 Exit $32.5 卖出均价 $32.5
Autonomous Vehicles 自动驾驶 Lidar 激光雷达 Robotics 机器人
entry $31.5
Opened position 建立仓位 BIT融资账户新建仓 BIT融资账户新建仓
exit $32.5
Closed position 清仓 清仓卖出 Ouster 清仓卖出 Ouster

Reason 原因: Auto-generated closed position from Convex trade and position records. 由 Convex 交易与持仓记录自动生成的清仓记录。

Lesson 教训: Add an editorial lesson in portfolio-overrides clearances only if this exit deserves a manual review. 只有值得复盘的清仓，才需要在 portfolio-overrides clearances 里补充人工经验。

159632 HuaAn NASDAQ-100 ETF 华安纳斯达克ETF
+ 21% d 天 10 trades 10 笔
NASDAQ-100 纳斯达克100 US Tech Exposure 美股科技敞口
1.953
1.874
1.873
2.28
2.335
2.31
2.342
2.354

Reason 原因: Sentiment overheated after 20%+ gain in under two months — exceeded EMA weekly band target. 情绪高涨，两个月超出 20% 收益足够。EMA 周线布防目标已达成。

Lesson 教训: Position was only 50% of planned allocation — next thematic ETF trade should be full size when signal fires. 仓位只打了 50% 预备资金，下次主题 ETF 信号触发时应该打满。

01816 CGN Power 中国广核电力
+ 1% 24d 24天 Win 100% 胜率 100% 2 trades 2 笔
Entry HK$3.44 买入均价 HK$3.44 Exit HK$3.47 卖出均价 HK$3.47
Nuclear Power 核电 Clean Base Load 清洁基荷 Rotation 换仓
entry HK$3.44
Opened HK position 建立港股仓位 Entry at HK$3.44. Nuclear baseload thesis. 建仓 HK$3.44 建仓。核电基荷逻辑。
exit HK$3.47
Closed HK leg and rotated to A-share 003816 港股清仓，转 A 股 003816 Exit at HK$3.47. Vehicle switch, not thesis failure. 清仓 HK$3.47 清仓。载体切换，不是 thesis 失败。

Reason 原因: Position was not a thesis failure. HK 01816 was closed and rotated into A-share 003816 because HK Connect costs and weaker liquidity made the HK leg an inferior vehicle. 这不是投资逻辑失败，而是载体切换：港股 01816 清仓，转入 A 股 003816。原因是港股通成本更高、流动性/弹性更弱，A 股更适合继续承接核电配置。

Lesson 教训: Separate thesis from vehicle. Keep the nuclear-power thesis, but let execution migrate to the cleaner market when fees, liquidity and follow-through are better. 把 thesis 和交易载体分开看：核电长期逻辑继续成立，但交易载体要选成本、流动性、跟随性更好的市场。01816 的结果应作为换仓记录，不应被读成核电 thesis 失败。

TSLA Tesla 特斯拉
+ 12% 15d 15天 Win 100% 胜率 100% 2 trades 2 笔
Entry $382.4 买入均价 $382.4 Exit $427.725 卖出均价 $427.725
EV 电动车 Autonomy 自动驾驶 AI/Robotics AI/机器人
entry $382.4
Opened exploratory TSLA position 建立 TSLA 探索仓 Entry at $382.40. Autonomy/FSD + robotics optionality thesis. 建仓 $382.40。自动驾驶/FSD + 机器人期权逻辑。
exit $427.725
Full exit after rebound 反弹后清仓 Exit at $427.725. Realized profit $90.65, +11.85%. 清仓 $427.725。实现盈利 $90.65，+11.85%。

Reason 原因: Closed the small test position after a fast rebound; kept the optionality thesis on watchlist but locked the realized gain. 快速反弹后清掉小测试仓；保留自动驾驶/机器人期权逻辑在观察池，但先锁定已实现收益。

Lesson 教训: The thesis had upside optionality, but the position size was exploratory. When a test position pays quickly, taking the clean win beats forcing it into a long-term holding. 逻辑有上行期权，但仓位本质是探索仓。测试仓快速赚钱时，干净兑现比硬拗成长线更好。

HOOD Robinhood Markets Robinhood
+ 9% 5d 5天 Win 100% 胜率 100% 1 trades 1 笔
Fintech 金融科技 Prediction Markets 预测市场
entry 82.3
Built swing position 建仓波段 Avg cost $82.30. Prediction market + crypto flywheel thesis. 均价 $82.30。预测市场 + 加密飞轮逻辑。
exit 89.71
Full exit at target 目标价清仓 Exit at $89.71. +9.0% realized, $148 profit. 清仓 $89.71。实现 +9.0%，盈利 $148。

Reason 原因: Short-term target reached ($88-92 band). Swing position closed at $89.71. 短期目标价区间 $88-92 达成，$89.71 平仓。

Lesson 教训: Prediction market narrative drove the trade, but execution was clean — pre-identified target, disciplined exit. Small position size limited upside but kept risk in check. 预测市场叙事驱动了这笔交易，执行纪律到位——预设目标价、果断平仓。小仓位限制了上行空间，但风险可控。

equipment-combo Capacity Equipment Combo · 3 stocks 产能设备组合 · 三只
+ 5% 14d 14天 Win 100% 胜率 100% 7 trades 7 笔
Industrial 工程机械 Equipment Export 设备出海
Basket 组合成分
600031 Sany Heavy 三一重工 + 5.9% 14d 14天 601100 Hengli Hydraulics 恒立液压 + 7.7% 7d 7天 560280 Construction Machinery ETF 工程机械ETF + 2.7% 14d 14天
entry
Theme-driven entry, signal not yet fired 主题驱动建仓，信号未触发 Sany + ETF. RSI 40.7 vs <30 required 三一 + ETF。RSI 40.7 未到严格阈值 <30
catalyst
Sany FY2025 earnings beat 三一年报催化 Net profit +41.2% YoY, overseas revenue 64% 归母 +41.2%、海外收入 64%，超预期
exit
Full clearance on tariff shock + stop rule 关税冲击 + 止盈规则清仓 Sany +5.9%, Hengli +7.7%, ETF +2.7% 三一 +5.9%，恒立 +7.7%，ETF +2.7%

Reason 原因: Tariff escalation to 245% + trailing-stop rule both fired — cleared next morning 关税升级到 245% + 移动止盈规则同时触发，次日清仓

Lesson 教训: Theme won this round, but the strict co-signal never fired. Pre-positioning on narrative = strategy-external profit, don't count as validation. Next cycle: wait for the signal. 主题赢了，但严格共振信号从未触发。基于叙事的提前入场 = "策略外获利"，不能当作策略验证。下一轮必须等信号。

518880 Gold ETF (Huaan) 黄金ETF华安
+ 10% 152d 152天 Win 100% 胜率 100% 33 trades 33 笔
Gold 黄金 Macro Hedge 宏观对冲
entry 8.986
Built position in 3 tranches 分 3 批建仓 Weekly mid-band pullback entry; avg cost ~¥8.90 周线中轨回调入场；均价 ~¥8.90
add 10.03
Counter-trend add on sharp pullback 大跌逆势加仓 Triple add on single-day drop near intraday low 同一天三笔加仓，接近日内最低
exit 9.459
Full exit on weekly mid-band break 周线中轨跌破清仓 Pre-identified technical signal fired. +10% realized 事先识别的技术信号触发，全部清仓。实现 +10%

Reason 原因: Weekly mid-band breakdown triggered the stop Rex had pre-identified 周线中轨跌破触发事先识别的止损信号

Lesson 教训: Jan bottom-add at 10.03 was the single best call. Slow de-stocking preserved upside but caused profit retrace late-cycle — should have been more aggressive trimming at 11+ peaks. 1 月底 10.03 低位补仓是整轮最成功的操作。保守减仓锁定了大部分利润，但尾段利润回吐——11+ 高点应该更果断减仓。

Full trade review → 完整交易复盘 →
% d 天

Reason 原因:

Lesson 教训:

% d 天

Reason 原因:

Lesson 教训:

% d 天

Reason 原因:

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Watchlist Opportunity Scan 观察池机会扫描

Who's moving into upgrade range 谁在靠近升级区

Six-factor quant ratings for the watchlist. Each factor independently graded (A+~F), with composite score and Buy/Hold recommendation on the right. Green = strong, red = weak, gray = missing data. 六因子量化评分驱动的观察池。每个因子独立评级（A+~F），右侧为综合评分和买卖建议。颜色越绿越强，越红越弱，灰色为数据缺失。

29 tickers · 36 registry29 只观察 · 36 只入池
Factor: A B C D —
Sorted by quant score按量化评分排序
Ticker
估值成长利润动量盈利股息
Score评分
MU US
Micron Technology v2.0 完整调研报告
CA+AA+A+A+
Buy 4.4
EQT US
Corporation
AA+ACA-A+
Buy 4.3
NVDA US
NVIDIA
C+A-A+B+A+A+
Buy 4.3
GOOGL US
Alphabet
BB-B+AA+A+
Buy 4.1
CRWV US
CoreWeave 大师圆桌决策简报
A+A+D+BAA+
Buy 4.1
MRVL US
Marvell Technology 完整投资调研报告
D+AB-A+A+A+
Buy 4.0
AMAT US
Applied Materials v2.0 完整调研报告
CB-BA+A+A+
Buy 4.0
VRT US
Vertiv Holdings（NYSE: ）公司深研：AI 数据中心“电力 + 热管理”纯度最高的一档
DA+CA+A+A+
Buy 3.9
BKR US
Baker Hughes v2.0 刷新报告
B+AC-A-B+A+
Buy 3.9
CEG US
Constellation Energy
BA+C-C+A+A+
Buy 3.9
LITE US
Lumentum Holdings v2.0 完整调研报告
FAC+A+A+A+
Buy 3.8
OUST US
Ouster v2.0 完整调研报告
AB+FA+—A+
Buy 3.8
VST US
AI Inflection Radar Weekly Report — 2026 05 11
BB+C+C+A+A+
Buy 3.8
AAPL US
Apple Inc.
B-C-BB+A+A+
Buy 3.8
AVGO US
Broadcom 大师圆桌决策简报
DBAA-A+B+
Buy 3.7
ILMN US
Illumina v2.0 完整调研报告
BD+BA-AA+
Buy 3.7
AAOI US
Applied Optoelectronics v2.0 完整调研报告
BA-FA+—A+
Buy 3.7
CRM US
Salesforce v2.0 完整调研报告
B+CBCA+A+
Buy 3.7
CRCL US
Circle Internet Group
A+FFA+AA+
Buy 3.5
HOOD US
Robinhood Markets
C+C-AD+A+A+
Buy 3.5
TEM US
Tempus AI 大师圆桌决策简报
A+BDDAA+
Hold 3.5
HUBB US
Hubbell Incorporated
BCCCA+A
Hold 3.4
POET US
Technologies v2.0 完整调研报告
FA+FA+—A+
Hold 3.3
HAFN US
Hafnia Limited v2.0 刷新报告
ABC-AD+B
Hold 3.3
LNG US
Cheniere Energy
C+B-FB-A+A
Hold 3.3
NOW US
ServiceNow v2.0 完整调研报告
C-C-B-C-A+A+
Hold 3.3
ETN US
Eaton Corporation
C+DCB-A+B+
Hold 3.1
COIN US
Coinbase Global
D+FB-C-A+A+
Hold 3.0
BOT US
RoboStrategy— 私募机器人资产上市壳研究
——F———
Strong Sell 1.0

Methodology · 8-Stage Funnel 方法论 · 八阶段漏斗

From macro thermometer to post-trade review 从宏观温度计到持仓复盘

Every position passes through these stages. Some are automated cron tasks, some require human judgment. Round-trip is weeks, not days. 每个持仓都要走过这些阶段。部分是自动 cron，部分需要人工判断。完整走一圈以周为单位，不是天。

8-stage funnel · automated + manual八阶段漏斗 · 自动 + 人工
0

Macro Thermometer 宏观温度计

✓ Daily 每日

Read market regime: offensive / neutral / defensive 判断市场温度：进攻 / 中性 / 防御

1

Sector Research 赛道研究

○ Manual 手动

1-2 day deep report before picking stocks 选股之前先做重度赛道报告

2

Watchlist Scan 个股池初筛

✓ Daily 每日

15 tickers, 5-dimension filter → 10-20 names 15 只标的五维扫描 → 10-20 家观察名单

29 tickers in scan pool 29 只标的在观察池

3

Short List 短名单

✓ Daily 每日

Valuation + catalyst + technicals → 3-5 names 估值 + 催化 + 技术面 → 3-5 家可操作短名单

4

Deep Research 深度研究

○ Skill Skill

Skill: 4+1 card per company, 3 hard theses Skill：每家公司 4+1 段名片 + 三条硬结论

5

Roundtable 圆桌讨论

○ Skill Skill

6-seat masters challenge the theses; dissent required 6 席位大师挑战结论；反方必选

6

Execution Plan 执行计划

✓ Scorecard 评分卡

10-point scorecard ≥7, R:R ≥ 2.0, 3 stop-lines 10 分评分卡 ≥7，R:R ≥ 2.0，3 条撤退线

MA200 支撑 RSI 量价 R:R ≥ 2.0 Score ≥ 7 / 10 to trade ≥ 7/10 才下单
7

Position Management 持仓管理 + 复盘

✓ 4-tier 四层

L0-L3 monitoring + monthly/quarterly/annual reviews L0-L3 四层监控 + 月/季/年复盘

Monthly 月度 Quarterly 季度 Annual 年度
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